Potential SST drivers for Chlorophyll-a variability in the Alboran Sea: A source for seasonal predictability?

Abstract

This study investigates the link between large-scale variability modes of the sea surface temperature (SST) and the surface chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration in spring along the northern flank of the Alboran Sea. To this aim, surface satellite-derived products of SST and Chl-a, together with atmospheric satellite variables, are used. Our results indicate that both the tropical North Atlantic and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) could trigger the development of anomalous distribution patterns of Chl-a in spring in northern Alboran. This anomalous feature of Chl-a is, in turn, associated with the alteration of the usual upwelling taking place in northern Alboran at that time of the year. The skill of the related SST signals, over the tropical North Atlantic and the tropical Pacific, as predictors of the aforementioned Chl-a response in Alboran, has also been assessed through a statistical prediction model with leave-one-out cross-validation. Our results confirm the predictive skill of ENSO to realistically estimate the coastal Chl-a concentration in spring in northern Alboran. In particular, during the El Niño/La Niña years, this Chl-a response can be robustly predicted with 4 months in advance. On the other hand, the tropical North Atlantic SSTs allow to significantly predict, up to 7 months in advance, the Chl-a concentration in spring offshore, in particular by the north of the Western and the Eastern Alboran gyres. The results presented here could contribute to develop a future seasonal forecasting tool of upwelling variability and living marine resources in northern Alboran.