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dc.contributor.authorPicornell Rodríguez, Antonio
dc.contributor.authorMaya-Manzano, José M.
dc.contributor.authorFernández-Ramos, Marta
dc.contributor.authorHidalgo-Barquero, Juan J.
dc.contributor.authorPecero-Casimiro, Raúl
dc.contributor.authorRuiz-Mata, Rocío
dc.contributor.authorDe Gálvez-Montañez, Enrique
dc.contributor.authorTrigo-Pérez, María del Mar 
dc.contributor.authorRecio-Criado, María Marta 
dc.contributor.authorFernández-Rodríguez, Santiago
dc.date.accessioned2024-01-31T09:55:07Z
dc.date.available2024-01-31T09:55:07Z
dc.date.issued2023-10-12
dc.identifier.citationAntonio Picornell, José M. Maya-Manzano, Marta Fernández-Ramos, Juan J. Hidalgo-Barquero, Raúl Pecero-Casimiro, Rocío Ruiz-Mata, Enrique de Gálvez-Montañez, María del Mar Trigo, Marta Recio, Santiago Fernández-Rodríguez, Effects of climate change on Platanus flowering in Western Mediterranean cities: Current trends and future projections, Science of The Total Environment, Volume 906, 2024, 167800, ISSN 0048-9697, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167800es_ES
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10630/29470
dc.description.abstractOrnamental trees can reduce some of the negative impacts of urbanization on citizens but some species, such as Platanus spp., produce pollen with high allergenic potential. This can exacerbate the symptomatology in allergic patients, being a public health problem. Therefore, it would be relevant to determine the environmental conditions regulating the flowering onset of the Platanus species. The aims of this study were to use aerobiological records for modelling the thermal requirements of Platanus flowering and to make future projections based on the effects that climate change could have on it under several possible future scenarios. This study was conducted in Badajoz and Malaga, two Western Mediterranean cities with different climate conditions. In the first step, several main pollen season definitions were applied to the aerobiological data and their onset dates were compared with in situ phenological observations. The main pollen season definition that best fitted the Platanus flowering onset was based on the 4th derivative of a logistic function. This definition was used as a proxy to model the thermal requirements of the Platanus flowering onset by applying the PhenoFlex statistical framework. The errors obtained by this model during the external validation were 3.2 days on average, so it was fed with future temperature estimations to determine possible future trends. According to the different models, the flowering onset of Platanus in Badajoz will show heterogeneous responses in the short and medium term due to different balances in the chilling-forcing compensation, while it will clearly delay in Malaga due to a significant delay in the chilling requirement fulfilment. This may increase the chances of cross-reactivity episodes with other pollen types in the future, increasing its impact on public health.es_ES
dc.description.sponsorshipFunding for open Access charge: Universidad de Málaga / CBUA. This work was partially financed by the Ministry of Science and Innovation of Spain and FEDER funding inside the Operational Plurirregional Program of Spain 2014-2020 and the Operational Program of Smart Growing (Project Environmental and Biodiversity Climate Change Lab, EnBiC2-Lab), by the Regional Government of Extremadura (IB20081 and GR21027), and by the University of Málaga under its program for projects led by young researchers (I Plan Propio de Investigación y Transferencia; B1-2021_24). A. Picornell was supported by a postdoctoral grant financed by the Ministry of Economic Transformation, Industry, Knowledge and Universities of the Junta de Andalucía (POSTDOC_21_00056). We acknowledge the E-OBS dataset from the EU-FP6 project UERRA (http://www.uerra.eu) and the Copernicus Climate Change Service, and the data providers in the ECA&D project (https://www.ecad.eu).es_ES
dc.language.isoenges_ES
dc.publisherElsevieres_ES
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesses_ES
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/*
dc.subjectBotánicaes_ES
dc.subjectFisiología vegetales_ES
dc.subjectCambios climáticoses_ES
dc.subject.otherBotanyes_ES
dc.subject.otherPlatanus spp.es_ES
dc.subject.otherPhenologyes_ES
dc.subject.otherClimate changees_ES
dc.subject.otherForecastes_ES
dc.titleEffects of climate change on Platanus flowering in Western Mediterranean cities: current trends and future projectionses_ES
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlees_ES
dc.centroFacultad de Cienciases_ES
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167800
dc.rights.ccAtribución-NoComercial 4.0 Internacional*
dc.type.hasVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiones_ES


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